HITBrier 0.134

AUD/USD daily closes from March 30 to April 29, 2026: Closes above 0.6850: March 31 (0.6921), April 1 (0.6924), April 2 (0.6911), April 6 (0.6917), April 7 (0.7077), April 8 (0.7039), April 9 (0.7076), April 13 (0.7099), April 14 (0.7129), April 15 (0.7176), April 16 (0.7159), April 19 (0.7135), April 20 (0.7174), April 21 (0.7156), April 22 (0.7158), April 23 (0.7130), April 26 (0.7144), April 27 (0.7191). Count: 18 days above 0.6850. Actual: 18 days, Required: 3 days, 18 > 3 therefore threshold MET. News confirmed Strait of Hormuz tensions and Australia benefiting as alternative commodity supplier during Iran crisis.

Resolved Apr 29, 2026

Market

LONG correctAUD/USD

Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) will strengthen above 0.6850 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz Strait closure drives global commodity demand toward Australian iron ore and energy exports while creating safe-haven flows to non-Middle East producers

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-30 at 63% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-29. Brier score 0.134.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis Bayesian analysis shows 67% escalation probability with Iran choosing diplomatic brinkmanship. WARTIME regime with confirmed energy infrastructure attacks. Australia benefits as alternative commodity supplier. Reference class: percentage_threshold/market shows 80% hit rate but adjusting down for geopolitical complexity.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 29153d ago
Made: Mar 30

Regimewartime

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) will trade below 0.6200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as China's gray zone Taiwan escalation reduces commodity demand expectations and risk-off positioning favors USD safe haven flows

market72%PARTIAL

AUD/USD will decline at least 1.0% from its current level on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $0.71, 1% from $0.72 at creation)

market39%HIT

AUD/USD will close at least 1.5% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days (target below $0.70, 1.5% from $0.71 at creation)

market84%

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Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) will strengthen above 0.6850 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Hormuz Strait closure drives global commodity demand toward Australian iron ore and energy exports while creating safe-haven flows to non-Middle East producers

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