AUD/USD will decline at least 1.0% from its current level on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $0.71, 1% from $0.72 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 39% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-16. Brier score 0.378.

China Property/Stimulus Dilemma Bayesian equilibrium (fragile, 'targeted property bailout' vs 'long China recovery') combined with broader wartime risk-off regime pressures commodity-linked currencies; AUD is highly correlated with Chinese growth expectations and industrial metals demand.

Probability

39%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Sep 245d ago

Made

Sep 10

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.