Iran will publicly reject a US- or Oman-brokered diplomatic proposal to reopen or de-escalate the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 65% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Derived from Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conditions favor conflict) combined with Strait of Hormuz 67% escalation probability and confirmed prior harassment/mine/seizure incidents, indicating Iran's calculating-type actors are more likely to reject de-escalation frameworks than accept them given collapsed bargaining space.

Probability: 65%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against Iranian-backed militia or IRGC-linked targets inside Syria within 14 days.

geopolitical72%

Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

geopolitical5%

China's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.

geopolitical49%MISS

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Hamas or Gaza-based militant groups will conduct or publicly claim at least one attack on Israeli territory or forces within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window.

geopolitical69%

Iran will publicly reject a US- or Oman-brokered diplomatic proposal to reopen or de-escalate the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

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