MISSBrier 0.237

Taiwan MND-sourced reports (official tier mnd.gov.tw Sept19; Taiwan News other-tier) within window Sep6-20, 2026 show daily PLA aircraft counts: Sep6=21 aircraft, Sep7=2, Sep13=5, Sep18=28 (highest recorded in window), Sep19=20, Sep20=5. Actual max single-day count 28 aircraft, Required >50. 28 < 50, therefore threshold NOT met. No day in the window approached the 50-aircraft threshold, contradicting the predicted large-scale incursion around the equinox/Yom Kippur convergence date.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Geopolitical

China's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 49% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.237.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows fragile stability (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, 25% narrow bargaining range, 53% escalation probability) with China pursuing gray-zone escalation; the Sept 19 convergence signal (intensity 5/5, historical Yom Kippur War parallel) flags elevated symbolic-date provocation risk, though confidence is tempered per red-team caution on calendar-signal overreliance.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 1910d ago
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Iran will publicly reject a US- or Oman-brokered diplomatic proposal to reopen or de-escalate the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

geopolitical65%

Iran will announce a formal restriction, fine, or blockade order targeting a specific flag-state's vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical30%

China's central bank or government will announce a new large-scale property sector stimulus measure (rate cut, developer bailout fund, or mortgage easing) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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China's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.

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