China's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 49% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.237.
Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium shows fragile stability (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, 25% narrow bargaining range, 53% escalation probability) with China pursuing gray-zone escalation; the Sept 19 convergence signal (intensity 5/5, historical Yom Kippur War parallel) flags elevated symbolic-date provocation risk, though confidence is tempered per red-team caution on calendar-signal overreliance.
- Probability
- 49%
- Timeframe
- 10 days
- Deadline
- Sep 1910d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .