Iran will announce a formal restriction, fine, or blockade order targeting a specific flag-state's vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 30% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-23.

Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67%, Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions), and the confirmed prior pattern of Iran threatening tanker fines/confiscation, now entering the Yom Kippur War anniversary convergence window (Sept 19).

Probability: 30%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's central bank or government will announce a new large-scale property sector stimulus measure (rate cut, developer bailout fund, or mortgage easing) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

OPEC+ will announce a further production quota increase (not a cut) for its October 2026 allocation within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

Iran will publicly announce or have confirmed uranium enrichment above 60% purity within 30 days.

geopolitical12%

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China's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.

geopolitical49%MISS

Iran will announce a formal restriction, fine, or blockade order targeting a specific flag-state's vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

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