Iran will publicly announce or have confirmed uranium enrichment above 60% purity within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 12% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), with IRGC in active escalation mode per actor intelligence update; this represents a distinct catalyst from existing pending Hormuz/Syria strike predictions.
- Probability
- 12%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 9in 10d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.