The Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 53% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium (hawkish hold + guidance, bearish, 55% confidence) plus knowledge-bank confirmation of the July FOMC hold with three dissents favoring a hike and rising inflation concern in minutes. Crowd Polymarket prices 'no change' at only 47%; my estimate is higher given the hawkish trajectory already confirmed.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia will publicly propose or agree to a formal ceasefire covering at least one front line of the Ukraine war within 30 days.

geopolitical55%

OPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical17%

China will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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The Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

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