Russia will publicly propose or agree to a formal ceasefire covering at least one front line of the Ukraine war within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 55% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range and 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength' resolution (bullish, 78% confidence), but a formal ceasefire is a much higher bar than the prisoner exchanges/negotiation sessions already confirmed in prior windows, so confidence is anchored below the 20% policy_action base rate adjustment upward for the favorable Fearon range.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical17%

The Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

geopolitical53%EXPIRED

China will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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Iran will publicly announce or have confirmed uranium enrichment above 60% purity within 30 days.

geopolitical12%

Russia will publicly propose or agree to a formal ceasefire covering at least one front line of the Ukraine war within 30 days.

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