Russia will publicly propose or agree to a formal ceasefire covering at least one front line of the Ukraine war within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 55% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Bayesian Russia-Ukraine equilibrium shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range and 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength' resolution (bullish, 78% confidence), but a formal ceasefire is a much higher bar than the prisoner exchanges/negotiation sessions already confirmed in prior windows, so confidence is anchored below the 20% policy_action base rate adjustment upward for the favorable Fearon range.
- Probability
- 55%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 9in 10d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.