China will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis: dominant equilibrium is China Gray zone escalation / US Economic deterrence (p=100%, fragile stability 30%, critical fracture risk), consistent with the already-confirmed pattern of Chinese retaliatory export/sanction actions against US tech firms (FCC/Xinjiang countermeasures, Aug 2026).

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a formal coordinated production cut decision at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical17%

Russia will publicly propose or agree to a formal ceasefire covering at least one front line of the Ukraine war within 30 days.

geopolitical55%

The Federal Reserve will leave its policy interest rate unchanged at the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

geopolitical53%EXPIRED

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The United States will announce a new semiconductor or advanced-technology export control measure targeting China within 21 days.

geopolitical29%

China will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

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