The United States will announce a new semiconductor or advanced-technology export control measure targeting China within 21 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium: China Gray zone escalation / US Economic deterrence (p=100%, fragile stability, narrow 25% bargaining range). This equilibrium already produced a confirmed FCC/Xinjiang export action in August; continued fragile coalition (30% stability, critical fracture risk) implies repetition of this US strategy.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 21 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported multi-day joint air-and-naval exercise encircling or partially blockading Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

The US Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed escort or interdiction operation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical62%

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OPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas without a formal cut or further increase at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

The United States will announce a new semiconductor or advanced-technology export control measure targeting China within 21 days.

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