China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported multi-day joint air-and-naval exercise encircling or partially blockading Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: China dominant type 'calculating' pursuing gray zone escalation (p=100%), coalition stability only 30%, fracture risk flagged critical; distinct catalyst (coordinated blockade-style exercise) and longer window than pending ADIZ-aircraft-count prediction.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 9in 10d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed escort or interdiction operation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical62%

OPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas without a formal cut or further increase at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

Russia will announce a new or expanded energy supply agreement (pipeline, LNG contract, or bilateral deal) with an Asian country (China or India) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported multi-day joint air-and-naval exercise encircling or partially blockading Taiwan within 30 days.

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