The US Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed escort or interdiction operation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 62% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-23.
Bayesian Hormuz Crisis shows 67% escalation probability despite a 50% bargaining range; Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium already shows 'US chooses Naval convoy escorts' as a mixed-strategy outcome, supporting an analogous US response in Hormuz.
- Probability
- 62%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 236d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.