The US Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed escort or interdiction operation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 62% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-23.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis shows 67% escalation probability despite a 50% bargaining range; Red Sea Shipping Crisis Nash equilibrium already shows 'US chooses Naval convoy escorts' as a mixed-strategy outcome, supporting an analogous US response in Hormuz.

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a publicly reported multi-day joint air-and-naval exercise encircling or partially blockading Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

OPEC+ will maintain its current production quotas without a formal cut or further increase at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

Russia will announce a new or expanded energy supply agreement (pipeline, LNG contract, or bilateral deal) with an Asian country (China or India) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

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The US Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed escort or interdiction operation for commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

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