Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against Iranian-backed militia or IRGC-linked targets inside Syria within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 72% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-23.

Iran IRGC Intelligence Update notes active escalation mode following senior naval leadership losses and explicit threats against US assets; Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian shows 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure, bearish 60% confidence), raising probability of Israeli preemptive action against IRGC-linked targets outside the already-covered Lebanon/mainland-Iran scenarios.

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 236d ago
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

geopolitical5%

Iran will publicly reject a US- or Oman-brokered diplomatic proposal to reopen or de-escalate the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

geopolitical65%

Hamas or Gaza-based militant groups will conduct or publicly claim at least one attack on Israeli territory or forces within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window.

geopolitical69%

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Russia will announce a formal unilateral or negotiated ceasefire covering at least one active front sector within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against Iranian-backed militia or IRGC-linked targets inside Syria within 14 days.

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