Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-04.

Mirrors Polymarket question 601823 (YES 0%); no intelligence signal in the provided context contradicts the crowd pricing, so confidence is set near the crowd level as a calibration check.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 25 days
Deadline: Oct 4in 5d
Made: Sep 9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against Iranian-backed militia or IRGC-linked targets inside Syria within 14 days.

geopolitical72%

Iran will publicly reject a US- or Oman-brokered diplomatic proposal to reopen or de-escalate the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

geopolitical65%

Hamas or Gaza-based militant groups will conduct or publicly claim at least one attack on Israeli territory or forces within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window.

geopolitical69%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

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