Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-09 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-04.
Mirrors Polymarket question 601823 (YES 0%); no intelligence signal in the provided context contradicts the crowd pricing, so confidence is set near the crowd level as a calibration check.
- Probability
- 5%
- Timeframe
- 25 days
- Deadline
- Oct 4in 5d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.