WTI crude futures (CL) will close above $95.00 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed pattern of Hormuz mine deployments, vessel seizures, and tanker harassment (3+ distinct incidents confirmed in the prior 14-day window) sustains upward pressure on crude from the current ~$90.75 level.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-30 at 29% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-21.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian Crisis (67% escalation probability, 50% bargaining range but fragile) and recently confirmed 'Iran/Iran-aligned forces conducted additional Hormuz incidents' resolution (score 100%).

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 1316d ago
Made: Aug 30

Price Target$95

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

WTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

geopolitical5%

WTI crude oil will trade at or above $135 per barrel at some point during September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil hit (HIGH) $135 in September?' as YES.

geopolitical5%

The US government will not announce a formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days, despite the OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projecting 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range).

geopolitical8%

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