WTI crude oil will trade at or above $135 per barrel at some point during September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil hit (HIGH) $135 in September?' as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis escalation probability 67% and wartime regime with active blockade dynamics create tail risk of a supply-shock price spike; crowd priced this near 0%, we assign modest tail probability given confirmed chokepoint stress, capped low given magnitude improbability.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$135

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

WTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

geopolitical5%

WTI crude futures (CL) will close above $95.00 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed pattern of Hormuz mine deployments, vessel seizures, and tanker harassment (3+ distinct incidents confirmed in the prior 14-day window) sustains upward pressure on crude from the current ~$90.75 level.

market29%EXPIRED

The US government will not announce a formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days, despite the OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projecting 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range).

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

WTI crude oil will trade at or above $135 per barrel at some point during September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil hit (HIGH) $135 in September?' as YES.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture