MISSBrier 0.010

WTI crude oil (CL) price data from 2026-03-18 to 2026-04-17: Highest close was $87.52 on creation date, then declined. Price range: $83.13-$87.52. Never approached $130. Actual peak: $87.52, Required: $130, $87.52 < $130 therefore threshold NOT met. Also failed direction test as oil declined from reference price.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCL

West Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $130 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Fearon bargaining failure in Iran nuclear scenario creates supply disruption expectations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 10% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.010.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis showing Iran nuclear breakout with 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict conditions), wartime regime requiring direct supply impact modeling rather than diplomatic assumptions, and current USO at 121.67 suggesting oil market tension

Probability: 10%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Price Target$130

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US government will not announce a formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days, despite the OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projecting 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range).

geopolitical8%HIT

WTI crude futures (CL) will close above $95.00 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed pattern of Hormuz mine deployments, vessel seizures, and tanker harassment (3+ distinct incidents confirmed in the prior 14-day window) sustains upward pressure on crude from the current ~$90.75 level.

market29%EXPIRED

WTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

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West Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $130 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Fearon bargaining failure in Iran nuclear scenario creates supply disruption expectations

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