WTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-18 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-01.

Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% and Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) argue for upside oil risk, not a collapse to $65; USO already trading near $155 on wartime supply premium, inconsistent with a sub-$65 WTI print. Crowd priced at 1%, view broadly agrees directionally.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 18

Price Target$65

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

WTI crude oil will trade at or above $135 per barrel at some point during September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil hit (HIGH) $135 in September?' as YES.

geopolitical5%

WTI crude futures (CL) will close above $95.00 per barrel on at least one trading day within 14 days, as the confirmed pattern of Hormuz mine deployments, vessel seizures, and tanker harassment (3+ distinct incidents confirmed in the prior 14-day window) sustains upward pressure on crude from the current ~$90.75 level.

market29%EXPIRED

The US government will not announce a formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release within 30 days, despite the OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projecting 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range).

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WTI crude oil will trade at or below $65 per barrel at some point in September 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in September?' as YES

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