MISSBrier 0.060

Data-resolved: USDSGD moved from 1.27 to 1.28 (0.77%) during 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-25. Target: above 1.29. Target not reached. High was 1.28.

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctUSDSGD

USD/SGD will trade above 1.29 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Hormuz/Malacca chokepoint disruption pressures Asian trade-exposed currencies.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-11 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-25. Brier score 0.060.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability 67% and confirmed shipping disruption incidents; revised lower threshold (1.29 vs prior denied 1.32) and new window.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 254d ago
Made: Sep 11

Price Target$1.29

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/SGD will trade above 1.32 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as Singapore's exposure to disrupted Hormuz/Malacca trade routing and elevated freight costs weighs on the Singapore dollar amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

market27%MISS

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USD/SGD will trade above 1.29 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Hormuz/Malacca chokepoint disruption pressures Asian trade-exposed currencies.

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