MISSBrier 0.074

Data-resolved: USDSGD moved from 1.28 to 1.27 (-0.57%) during 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-21. Target: above 1.32. Target not reached. High was 1.28.

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Market

LONG wrongUSDSGD

USD/SGD will trade above 1.32 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as Singapore's exposure to disrupted Hormuz/Malacca trade routing and elevated freight costs weighs on the Singapore dollar amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-08-07 at 27% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-21. Brier score 0.074.

Confirmed tanker rerouting costs and Hormuz disruption spillover to regional trade hubs (Reuters wire, 2026-07-23) combined with 80% overall geopolitical escalation risk score creating regional-currency stress not yet priced by an existing pending prediction.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Aug 2154d ago
Made: Aug 7

Price Target$1.32

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/SGD will trade above 1.29 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Hormuz/Malacca chokepoint disruption pressures Asian trade-exposed currencies.

market25%MISS

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USD/SGD will trade above 1.32 on at least one trading day within 14 days, as Singapore's exposure to disrupted Hormuz/Malacca trade routing and elevated freight costs weighs on the Singapore dollar amid broader wartime risk-off capital flows.

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