Iran or an Iranian government/military official will issue a formal public statement or declaration threatening closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 72% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis shows 67% escalation probability despite a 'sufficient' 50% bargaining range; prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents establish an escalatory pattern that plausibly extends to explicit closure rhetoric distinct from physical incidents already confirmed.

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Department of Energy will announce a new formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 1 million barrels within 30 days.

geopolitical16%

Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.

geopolitical56%

China will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical75%

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The United States will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports or shadow-fleet tankers within 30 days.

geopolitical31%

Iran or an Iranian government/military official will issue a formal public statement or declaration threatening closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping within 14 days.

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