Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 56% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining range of 0% (structural conflict conditions) with escalation probability of 20% and critical fracture risk in the Iran-Israel coalition interaction; the thesis explicitly flags this as a Fearon bargaining failure mirroring war-as-commitment-problem dynamics.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will reach at least a partial or limited ceasefire agreement (e.g., energy infrastructure or Black Sea truce) within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

Iran or an Iranian government/military official will issue a formal public statement or declaration threatening closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping within 14 days.

geopolitical72%

US military forces will conduct a confirmed strike or direct engagement against Iranian IRGC naval assets in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

geopolitical63%

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Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.

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