US military forces will conduct a confirmed strike or direct engagement against Iranian IRGC naval assets in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 63% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis assessment shows 67% escalation probability with prior confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents already resolved as YES in the pattern; the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% ('conflict structurally likely'), raising the tail probability of a direct US-Iran naval engagement beyond the harassment pattern already priced.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce a new arms sale package or expanded military support commitment to Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

The United States Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed freedom-of-navigation or strait transit through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

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Russia and Ukraine will reach at least a partial or limited ceasefire agreement (e.g., energy infrastructure or Black Sea truce) within 30 days.

geopolitical59%

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Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.

geopolitical56%

US military forces will conduct a confirmed strike or direct engagement against Iranian IRGC naval assets in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.

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