The United States Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed freedom-of-navigation or strait transit through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 71% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait analysis showing fragile equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, 53% escalation probability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk, narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range) which historically correlates with continued US naval signaling activity.

Probability: 71%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The United States Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed freedom-of-navigation or strait transit through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

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