Russia and Ukraine will implement a limited humanitarian corridor, prisoner exchange, or energy-infrastructure truce arrangement (short of a full ceasefire) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 24% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows a 50% sufficient bargaining range with the most likely equilibrium 'Russia negotiates from strength, US pushes negotiated settlement' (p=91%, stable, bullish, 78% confidence) -- a partial/limited arrangement is a lower bar than the full ceasefire already covered by a pending prediction.

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States and China will hold a new publicly confirmed military-to-military or crisis-communication dialogue related to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

geopolitical54%

Iran or Iranian state media will issue a formal announcement of an actual (not merely threatened) temporary restriction or closure of the Strait of Hormuz to a category of commercial shipping within 14 days.

geopolitical49%

Russia and the United States will hold a new formal bilateral summit or high-level negotiation session specifically addressing the Ukraine war within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

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Russia and Ukraine will implement a limited humanitarian corridor, prisoner exchange, or energy-infrastructure truce arrangement (short of a full ceasefire) within 14 days.

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