Russia and Ukraine will implement a limited humanitarian corridor, prisoner exchange, or energy-infrastructure truce arrangement (short of a full ceasefire) within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 24% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.
Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows a 50% sufficient bargaining range with the most likely equilibrium 'Russia negotiates from strength, US pushes negotiated settlement' (p=91%, stable, bullish, 78% confidence) -- a partial/limited arrangement is a lower bar than the full ceasefire already covered by a pending prediction.
- Probability
- 24%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Sep 263d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.