The United States and China will hold a new publicly confirmed military-to-military or crisis-communication dialogue related to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 54% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis shows both China and US actors dominated by 'calculating' type (30% each) rather than purely escalatory types, and the equilibrium (gray zone escalation vs economic deterrence) is explicitly flagged fragile (30% coalition stability) -- calculating-type actors have incentive to open de-escalation channels even amid a narrow 25% bargaining range.

Probability: 54%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 121d ago
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will implement a limited humanitarian corridor, prisoner exchange, or energy-infrastructure truce arrangement (short of a full ceasefire) within 14 days.

geopolitical24%EXPIRED

Iran or Iranian state media will issue a formal announcement of an actual (not merely threatened) temporary restriction or closure of the Strait of Hormuz to a category of commercial shipping within 14 days.

geopolitical49%EXPIRED

Russia and the United States will hold a new formal bilateral summit or high-level negotiation session specifically addressing the Ukraine war within 30 days.

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The United States and China will hold a new publicly confirmed military-to-military or crisis-communication dialogue related to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

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