The United States and China will hold a new publicly confirmed military-to-military or crisis-communication dialogue related to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 54% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis shows both China and US actors dominated by 'calculating' type (30% each) rather than purely escalatory types, and the equilibrium (gray zone escalation vs economic deterrence) is explicitly flagged fragile (30% coalition stability) -- calculating-type actors have incentive to open de-escalation channels even amid a narrow 25% bargaining range.

Probability

54%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 12in 13d

Made

Sep 12

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.