Iran or Iranian state media will issue a formal announcement of an actual (not merely threatened) temporary restriction or closure of the Strait of Hormuz to a category of commercial shipping within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 49% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis: 67% escalation probability, sufficient 50% bargaining range but fragile coalition stability (30%); distinguished from already-pending 'threat' prediction by requiring an actual closure announcement, a higher bar than harassment/mine incidents already confirmed.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and the United States will hold a new formal bilateral summit or high-level negotiation session specifically addressing the Ukraine war within 30 days.

geopolitical58%

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days, continuing the pattern of the confirmed August 2026 output-hike decision.

geopolitical28%

The International Atomic Energy Agency or a wire-tier source will report a new confirmed increase in Iran's uranium enrichment capacity or stockpile within 30 days.

geopolitical61%

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Iran or Iranian state media will issue a formal announcement of an actual (not merely threatened) temporary restriction or closure of the Strait of Hormuz to a category of commercial shipping within 14 days.

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