China will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 75% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-26.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium: China dominant type 'calculating' pursuing gray zone escalation (p=100% for that equilibrium), 53% escalation probability, narrow 25% bargaining range, coalition stability only 30% with critical fracture risk.

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 263d ago
Made: Sep 12

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The US Department of Energy will announce a new formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 1 million barrels within 30 days.

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China will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

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