Saudi Arabia will announce an additional voluntary oil production cut beyond its current OPEC+ quota within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 19% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

Bayesian OPEC+ Production Decision equilibrium (38% bargaining range, fragile, 100% probability weight on 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR') identifies this as the most likely fragile outcome, though coalition stability is only 30%.

Probability: 19%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports or shadow-fleet tankers within 30 days.

geopolitical31%

China will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical75%

The US Department of Energy will announce a new formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 1 million barrels within 30 days.

geopolitical16%

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Saudi Arabia will announce an additional voluntary oil production cut beyond its current OPEC+ quota within 30 days.

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