The US Department of Energy will announce a new formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 1 million barrels within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 16% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.
OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projects 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range, 100% probability weight on this equilibrium), distinct from the already-tracked production-cut and quota-continuation predictions.
- Probability
- 16%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 12in 13d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.