The US Department of Energy will announce a new formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 1 million barrels within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-12 at 16% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-12.

OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium projects 'Saudi cuts production, US releases SPR' as the most likely fragile outcome (38% bargaining range, 100% probability weight on this equilibrium), distinct from the already-tracked production-cut and quota-continuation predictions.

Probability: 16%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 12in 13d
Made: Sep 12

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran or an Iranian government/military official will issue a formal public statement or declaration threatening closure of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping within 14 days.

geopolitical72%

China will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

geopolitical75%

The United States will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports or shadow-fleet tankers within 30 days.

geopolitical31%

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The US Department of Energy will announce a new formal Strategic Petroleum Reserve release of at least 1 million barrels within 30 days.

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