The US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions) and Hormuz escalation probability of 67% argue against a rapid diplomatic resolution within this short window, below the crowd's 8% pricing

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$30

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will conduct a full military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

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The US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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