Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 37% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-01.

Bayesian Hormuz Crisis shows escalation probability 67% against a fragile Fearon bargaining range; wartime regime with confirmed chokepoint contestation makes near-term full normalization less likely than the 24% crowd price implies

Probability: 37%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Jan 1in 94d
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$31

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

geopolitical5%

The United States will conduct a full military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

geopolitical11%

The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

geopolitical85%

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Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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