The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-29.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot analysis shows zero stable equilibria but the most likely path is 'hawkish hold + guidance' (bearish, 55% confidence) — diverges upward from the crowd's 46% pricing given the thesis's consistent hawkish-hold read across MACD-negative, risk-off conditions.

Probability

85%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 29in 30d

Made

Sep 23

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.