The United States will conduct a full military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 11% probability. Pending, resolves by 2027-01-01.

Despite 80% overall escalation risk score and Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure, full-scale invasion is a high bar; actor type distribution shows Iran and Israel/US as 'calculating' types (30%) favoring limited strikes over invasion, below the crowd's 14% pricing

Probability: 11%
Timeframe: 90 days
Deadline: Jan 1in 79d
Made: Sep 23

Price Target$1

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US will officially announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 30, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic will return to pre-crisis normal levels by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy rate without change following its October 2026 meeting, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?' as YES.

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The United States will conduct a full military invasion of Iran before January 1, 2027, resolving the Polymarket question as YES

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