Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment incident (vessel seizure, GPS jamming, or armed confrontation) in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-03.

Bayesian Strait of Hormuz Crisis: escalation probability 67%; Risk Scenario 1 in active thesis explicitly assigns 35% probability to Hormuz escalation materializing within the calendar window

Probability

85%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Oct 3in 4d

Made

Sep 19

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.