OPEC+ will convene an emergency, non-scheduled ministerial meeting within 30 days in direct response to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 46% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability 67% with sufficient-but-fragile bargaining range (50%); OPEC+ Production Decision Bayesian equilibrium already fragile (38% bargaining range, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical)

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will announce a further uranium enrichment escalation (new centrifuge cascade activation or enrichment level increase) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

The US Treasury will announce an increase in short-term Treasury bill issuance as a front-loading measure within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

The United States will announce a new arms sale or defense equipment transfer to Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical27%

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Saudi Arabia will announce a coordinated OPEC+ production cut at the December 2026 ministerial meeting.

geopolitical21%

OPEC+ will convene an emergency, non-scheduled ministerial meeting within 30 days in direct response to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.

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