Iran will announce a further uranium enrichment escalation (new centrifuge cascade activation or enrichment level increase) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 25% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-10-15.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian Fearon failure: 0% bargaining range, structural conditions favor conflict/escalation per Fearon (1995) commitment-problem framing, bearish market assessment at 60% confidence

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 79d ago
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will convene an emergency, non-scheduled ministerial meeting within 30 days in direct response to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.

geopolitical46%EXPIRED

The US Treasury will announce an increase in short-term Treasury bill issuance as a front-loading measure within 30 days.

geopolitical25%EXPIRED

The United States will announce a new arms sale or defense equipment transfer to Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical27%EXPIRED

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Iran will announce a further uranium enrichment escalation (new centrifuge cascade activation or enrichment level increase) within 30 days.

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