The United States will announce a new arms sale or defense equipment transfer to Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (China: gray zone escalation, US: economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) implies continued US deterrence signaling distinct from the already-covered PLA exercise and export-control predictions.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Treasury will announce an increase in short-term Treasury bill issuance as a front-loading measure within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

Saudi Arabia will announce a coordinated OPEC+ production cut at the December 2026 ministerial meeting.

geopolitical21%

OPEC+ will convene an emergency, non-scheduled ministerial meeting within 30 days in direct response to Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions.

geopolitical46%

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Iran will announce a further uranium enrichment escalation (new centrifuge cascade activation or enrichment level increase) within 30 days.

geopolitical25%

The United States will announce a new arms sale or defense equipment transfer to Taiwan within 30 days.

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