MISSBrier 0.008

Baltic Dry Index data shows opposite direction. April 16 report: 'Baltic Dry Index hits 2,484 points on ninth straight gain' and 'capesize spot rates hit highest levels this year' (April 15). Index was rising, not declining, and well above 1,000 threshold. Actual: 2,484 points, Required: below 1,000, 2,484 > 1,000 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 22, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongBDI

The Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,000 points within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Red Sea shipping tensions force cargo rerouting around Africa, increasing voyage times and reducing shipping demand efficiency

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 9% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-22. Brier score 0.008.

Derived from: Wartime regime with active Hormuz disruptions mentioned in thesis. Bayesian Iran analysis shows 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) indicating continued conflict. Shipping chokepoint disruptions historically reduce BDI as longer routes decrease vessel efficiency. Base rate for major FX/commodity moves in wartime: ~40%.

Probability: 9%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 15167d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,200 points within 14 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions and Strait of Malacca security concerns reduce global dry bulk demand

market10%MISS

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will fall below 1,100 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions reroute global shipping flows and create tonnage misallocation

market34%MISS

Baltic Dry Index will trade above 1,800 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces cargo rerouting through longer alternative routes

market

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The Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,000 points within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Red Sea shipping tensions force cargo rerouting around Africa, increasing voyage times and reducing shipping demand efficiency

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