Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will fall below 1,100 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions reroute global shipping flows and create tonnage misallocation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-25. Brier score 0.117.

Derived from: Wartime regime with Strait of Hormuz crisis game theory showing Iran diplomatic brinkmanship (70% confidence), shipping sector identified as affected, and 30-day timeframe shows best calibration (Brier 0.212)

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,000 points within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Red Sea shipping tensions force cargo rerouting around Africa, increasing voyage times and reducing shipping demand efficiency

market9%MISS

Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,200 points within 14 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions and Strait of Malacca security concerns reduce global dry bulk demand

market10%MISS

Baltic Dry Index will trade above 1,800 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces cargo rerouting through longer alternative routes

market

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will fall below 1,100 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions reroute global shipping flows and create tonnage misallocation

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture