Baltic Dry Index will trade above 1,800 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces cargo rerouting through longer alternative routes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-27 at 56% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.316.

Derived from: Confirmed Strait of Hormuz closure from intelligence with 'Strait of Hormuz Closure Drives Brent Above $110'. Red Sea shipping disruptions create compounding effect. Reference class day_count/market: 71% hit rate but adjusted down 6pp per calibration feedback.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 27

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) will fall below 1,100 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions reroute global shipping flows and create tonnage misallocation

market34%MISS

The Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,000 points within 30 days as Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Red Sea shipping tensions force cargo rerouting around Africa, increasing voyage times and reducing shipping demand efficiency

market9%MISS

Baltic Dry Index will decline below 1,200 points within 14 days as Red Sea shipping disruptions and Strait of Malacca security concerns reduce global dry bulk demand

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Baltic Dry Index will trade above 1,800 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Strait of Hormuz closure forces cargo rerouting through longer alternative routes

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