EUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

NEXUS forecast made 2026-04-26 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-05-10. Brier score 0.064.

Derived from: Wartime regime with confirmed Hormuz escalation probability 67%, European energy security vulnerabilities documented in game theory analysis, Fed-markets Fearon bargaining failure creating policy divergence pressure, and reference class policy_action/geopolitical 28% hit rate with +8pp overconfidence gap requiring downward adjustment

Probability

25%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

May 10142d ago

Made

Apr 26

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.