EUR/USD will trade below 1.08 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as dollar safe-haven flows accelerate during the Iran Assessment Window and European energy security concerns

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-23. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Risk-on regime with elevated volatility + European energy security scenario favoring dollar strength + Hormuz diplomatic brinkmanship creating energy risk premium for Europe

Probability

72%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 23190d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.