HITBrier 0.380

Early-confirmed: EUR/USD hit target above 1.12 on 2026-03-09, 2026-03-10, 2026-03-11. Current price: 1.16 (started at 1.16).

Resolved Mar 11, 2026

Market

LONG correctEUR/USD

USD/EUR will trade above 1.12 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as dollar safe haven demand outweighs European defensive positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 38% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.380.

Derived from: Fear/Greed index at 30 (defensive positioning) conflicting with risk-on regime classification, creating unstable conditions favoring safe haven dollar flows during 80% escalation risk environment

Probability: 38%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$1.12

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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USD/EUR will trade above 1.12 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as dollar safe haven demand outweighs European defensive positioning

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