MISSBrier 0.154

Data-resolved: EUR/USD moved from 1.16 to 1.15 (-1.44%) during 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-22. Target: above 1.175. Target not reached. High was 1.17.

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Market

LONG wrongEUR/USD

EUR/USD will trade above 1.175 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 39% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-09-22. Brier score 0.154.

Russia-Ukraine Bayesian equilibrium shows a sufficient 50% bargaining range and 91% probability of 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement' outcome (bullish, 78% confidence), which would ease European risk premiums and support the euro.

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Price Target$1.175

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade below 1.140 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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EUR/USD will trade above 1.148 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market84%

EUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

market25%MISS

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EUR/USD will trade above 1.175 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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