HITBrier 0.023

Early-confirmed: EUR/USD hit target below 1.14 on 2026-09-22, 2026-09-24. Current price: 1.14 (started at 1.15).

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Market

SHORT correctEUR/USD

EUR/USD will trade below 1.140 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-24. Brier score 0.023.

Fed hawkish-hold Bayesian equilibrium (no stable dovish pivot) supports broad dollar strength; target sits within the 14d expected move band (1.14-1.16) for a materially different catalyst/timeframe than any prior EUR/USD calls.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 3in 4d
Made: Sep 19

Price Target$1.14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade above 1.148 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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EUR/USD will trade above 1.175 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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EUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

market25%MISS

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EUR/USD will trade below 1.140 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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