EUR/USD will trade above 1.148 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-24 at 84% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Derived from Bayesian Fed equilibrium favoring a hawkish hold (no hike) rather than the crowd-priced 25bps increase; a hold-without-hike outcome removes support for further dollar strength, favoring a EUR/USD bounce within the 14-day typical-move band (1.13-1.15).

Probability: 84%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 24

Price Target$1.148

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

EUR/USD will trade below 1.140 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market85%HIT

EUR/USD will trade above 1.175 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

market39%MISS

EUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

market25%MISS

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EUR/USD will trade above 1.148 on at least one trading day within 14 days.

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