MISSBrier 0.518

Data-resolved: EUR/USD moved from 1.16 to 1.17 (0.65%) during 2026-03-09 to 2026-04-08. Target: below 1.05. Target not reached. Low was 1.14.

Resolved Apr 8, 2026

Market

SHORT wrongEUR/USD

EUR/USD will close below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-08. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: 80% escalation risk score driving safe-haven dollar demand amid European energy vulnerability. Multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium scenarios (Iran nuclear, Hormuz) favor USD strength. Fear Index at 30 + risk-on regime creates USD/safe-haven flow divergence.

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 8174d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$1.05

Regimetransitional

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USD/EUR will trade above 1.12 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as dollar safe haven demand outweighs European defensive positioning

market38%HIT

EUR/USD will trade below 1.08 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as dollar safe-haven flows accelerate during the Iran Assessment Window and European energy security concerns

market72%MISS

EUR/USD will trade below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as European energy crisis from confirmed Strait of Hormuz disruptions forces ECB dovish pivot while Fed maintains hawkish stance amid zero stable equilibria

market

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

EUR/USD will close below 1.0500 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture