MISSBrier 0.065

WTI crude oil futures data from 2026-05-19 to 2026-06-02 shows highest closing price was $107.77 on May 19, 2026. Daily closes: May 19: $107.77, May 20: $98.26, May 21: $96.35, May 22: $96.60, May 26: $93.89, May 27: $88.68, May 28: $88.90, May 29: $87.36, Jun 1: $92.16, Jun 2: $91.28. Actual highest: $107.77, Required: $160.00, $107.77 < $160.00 therefore threshold NOT met. Oil actually declined throughout the period instead of rising.

Resolved Jun 2, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCL=F

WTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-19 at 26% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-02. Brier score 0.065.

Derived from: Strait of Hormuz Crisis showing 67% escalation probability with Iran choosing diplomatic brinkmanship vs US negotiate de-escalation. Current USO price at 149.29 suggests WTI near $149. Zero Fearon bargaining range in Iran-nuclear scenario creates structural conflict conditions. Wartime regime already confirmed with supply disruption effects.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Jun 2119d ago
Made: May 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

The correlation between crude oil futures (CL=F) and Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) will break above 0.70 within 7 days as wartime regime forces synchronized energy import pricing pressures

market25%MISS

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WTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

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