MISSBrier 0.065

Cannot calculate exact correlation from price data alone, but directional analysis shows oil fell sharply (from ~$109 on May 21 to ~$89 by May 28) while CNY/USD was relatively stable (0.147 to 0.148 range). Oil declined ~18% while CNY/USD increased ~0.4% - opposite directions indicate negative or low positive correlation, well below 0.70 threshold. Limited correlation data available but directional movements strongly contradict high positive correlation claim. Estimated correlation ~0.50, Required: >0.70, 0.50 < 0.70 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Market

LONG wrongCL=F

The correlation between crude oil futures (CL=F) and Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) will break above 0.70 within 7 days as wartime regime forces synchronized energy import pricing pressures

NEXUS forecast made 2026-05-21 at 25% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-06-01. Brier score 0.065.

Derived from: Wartime regime with 80% escalation risk score and Hormuz escalation probability 67% creating energy supply disruptions. China-US trade war Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces China to secure alternative energy supplies, linking Yuan weakness to oil price spikes. Reference class: day_count/market 44% hit rate.

Probability: 25%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: May 28124d ago
Made: May 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

WTI crude oil futures will close above $160 per barrel on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as confirmed wartime regime supply disruption combines with zero stable equilibria in Strait of Hormuz Crisis to force sustained energy price shock

market26%MISS

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The correlation between crude oil futures (CL=F) and Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) will break above 0.70 within 7 days as wartime regime forces synchronized energy import pricing pressures

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